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1990 DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC PATTERNS
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST:
A STUDY IN MAPS

Map 1 — Rural Population: 1990

Using the Census definition of rural as being a place of fewer than 2,500 persons, a map of the Upper Midwest shows that 137 of the region's counties are totally rural (that is, containing no place larger than 2,500), and fully half of all counties have rural populations in excess of 70 percent. The region becomes increasingly rural as one travels west, with the majority of counties in the Dakotas being totally rural.

Map 2 — Population Living on Farms

High proportions of people living on farms is more common as one travels west in the region, and also typifies counties in Iowa. However, being rural and living on farms are not necessarily synonymous. Minnesota, for instance, has one of the nation's largest farm populations, but that population makes up only about five percent of the state total. There is no county in Minnesota today in which a majority of the population lives on farms, and in fact no county in which the majority of the rural population lives on farms.

Map 3 — Urbanized Population

Map 3 demonstrates that counties with urbanized populations are much less common in the Upper Midwest. An urbanized population is defined by the Census as a place with a population density of 1,000 or more per square mile, and only 51 of 377 counties in the region attain such densities for any portion of their population. While urbanized populations do not correspond directly to metropolitan areas, there is a great deal of overlap. Keep this pattern of urbanization in mind, as it will be seen to be associated with the distribution of other demographic and economic characteristics.

Map 4 — Population Change: 1980-1990

Map 4 demonstrates population losses over the decade of the 80s to be common among the region's most rural counties. These losses are attributable to outmigration, especially among the young, and to natural population decreases resulting from the excess of deaths over births.

Map 5 — Population Change for U.S. Counties: 1980-1990

Rural population losses are not confined to the Upper Midwest, but are widespread in the rural portions of the Central United States, as well as in the rural Northwest and Appalachia.

Map 6 — Population Change in Minnesota Counties: 1980-1990

The rate of population loss in many rural counties was significant. Map 6 portrays population change for counties in Minnesota. In this picture, blue counties declined in size while red counties grew. The numbers are the percentage of growth or decline rounded to the nearest whole percent. In total, 49 of the state's 87 counties had smaller populations in 1990 than in 1980, with proportional losses as high as 19 percent in the agricultural Western portion of the state, and as high as 20 percent in the heavily forested Northeast (where outmigration was further encouraged by downturns in the important mining industry).

Map 7 — Year of Peak Population

Population loss in rural counties is not a new phenomenon. Map 7 identifies 28 Minnesota counties that reached their population zenith in the (Census) year 1940 or before. The beginning of these declines can be traced in large measure to extensive changes in agricultural production, technology and marketing that began in the 1930s and continue today.

Map 8 — Population 65 Years and Older: 1990

One result of 50 years of outmigration is an age structure that is significantly different in rural than in more urbanized counties. Since the population of movers is skewed toward the young, who leave home seeking educational and employment opportunities in urban areas, the population that remains in rural areas is dominated by older residents. Map 8 demonstrates that in the oldest county populations in the Upper Midwest roughly 20 to 30 percent of the resident population is over the age of 65. In Minnesota, where 2/3 of the total population resides in metropolitan counties, 2/3 of households headed by a person over the age of 65 are nonmetropolitan. It is not difficult to locate rural communities in which over half of the residents are in this age group, controlling the majority of the local housing stock and dominating the local economy through transfer payments and their savings.

Map 9 — Change in Labor Force: 1980-1990

Associated with a declining and aging rural population is a shrinking labor force. Map 9 demonstrates that 309 of the region's 377 counties experienced actual labor force declines during the 1980s. Labor force growth was concentrated in metropolitan, and especially in suburban counties during the decade, mirroring the concentration of population in those regions.

Map 10 — Labor Force Participation

To be counted as participating in the labor force, one must have been 16 years of age or older, and either employed (full or part time), or unemployed and looking for work at the time of the Census. Labor force participation rates are affected by retirement, and can be expected to be lower in regions with older populations. Participation rates are also affected by discouraged unemployed workers who stop looking for work.

Map 11 — Civilian Unemployment: March 1990

High levels of unemployment appear in Northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, and in portions of the Dakotas in Map 11. Remember that these rates reflect only a single period in time (March/April 1990), and may have changed considerably since then. However, the concentrations displayed here no doubt say a great deal about the regional economies of the Upper Midwest. Discouraged workers in these regions probably account for at least some of the low labor force participation rates found in the same areas in Map 10.

Map 12 — Part Time and Irregular Employment: 1989

Map 12 reflects the proportion of the labor force indicating that during the year before the Census they had worked less than 40 weeks and/or typically worked less than 35 hours per week. Northern Wisconsin, Northern and Western Minnesota, and North Dakota all exhibit relatively high levels of such employment, involving between 44 and 64 percent of all workers. High levels of joblessness, underemployment in agriculture, and marginal economies in general would all contribute to the prevalence of such work.

Map 13 — Employment in Manufacturing: 1990

Manufacturing employment (durable and nondurable goods combined) in 1990 was highly concentrated in Wisconsin, Eastern Iowa, the Twin Cities area and South Central Minnesota. Such jobs were relatively less common in the Dakotas and Northern Minnesota, with the exception of Rosseau, Lake of the Woods and Koochiching Counties (the three northernmost Minnesota counties seen in red on this map). While manufacturing employment is generally seen as highly desirable, manufacturing employment rates as high as 43 percent do indicate manufacturing dependent economies that could be severely affected by a downturn in the industrial economy.

Map 14 — Change in Manufacturing Employment: 1980-1990

Growth in manufacturing employment was less likely to be concentrated in the already strong manufacturing labor markets. South Dakota counties appear to have been especially successful at increasing the size of their manufacturing labor force. One must interpret these numbers with some caution, as a relatively small number of jobs can have a dramatic proportional impact on a small base. Proportionally smaller increases in manufacturing jobs in some Twin Cities suburban counties no doubt involved more people than the proportionally larger increases in rural areas. Still, the geographically dispersed nature of increases in manufacturing employment is among the few encouraging signs for many rural economies.

Map 15 — Employment in Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry: 1990

In sharp contrast to the map of manufacturing employment, Map 15 demonstrates the dominance of Agriculture (fisheries and forestry) in the Dakotas, with 20 percent or more of the labor force employed in that industry in a majority of counties.

Agriculture, fisheries and forestry are combined in much reporting of Census industrial data. However, for the region, the vast majority of such employment is clearly in agriculture.

Map 16 — Percapita Income: 1989

There is a great range in percapita income across the Upper Midwest, as demonstrated in Map 16. According to the Census, county percapita incomes ranged from a low of $3,417 to a high of $19,249. Relatively high percapita incomes tended to be concentrated in metropolitan counties, and in manufacturing regions. Counties with the lowest percapita incomes tended to be found in North Central Minnesota and in the Dakotas.

Map 17 — Change in Percapita Income: 1979-1989

Growth in percapita income also varied greatly across Upper Midwestern counties during the 1980s, from a low of 13 to a high of 144 percent. The Twin Cities area, extreme Northern Minnesota, and scattered areas in Wisconsin were among the upper quartile. A number of counties in South Dakota also did well at raising percapita income levels. In fact, if one adjusts these income changes for inflation based on changes in the consumer price index, only 24 counties in the region saw real dollar improvements in percapita income during the 80s, and 17 of these were in South Dakota. The increases in manufacturing employment noted earlier, and a low income starting point would both contribute to the proportionally large income increases found in that part of the region.

Map 18 — Population Below Poverty Level: 1989

The proportionally largest concentrations of poor persons in 1989 were to be found in North Central Minnesota, Eastern Iowa, and in core counties of metropolitan areas (such as Hennepin and Ramsey Counties in Minnesota). While incomes may be low in much of the Dakotas, they were apparently sufficient to keep most people above the poverty threshold. The apparent contradiction found in counties with both low percapita incomes and relatively small populations in poverty may be in part attributable to the age structure of the region, with relatively large numbers of persons receiving retirement incomes that, while low, are above the poverty level for the one- and two-person households receiving them. Similarly, the relatively high percapita incomes and high poverty rates in portions of Iowa may reflect disparities in the distribution of income that favor a small number of successful large farms.

Map 19 — Households with Public Assistance Income: 1990

Rural counties in North Central Minnesota, Northern Wisconsin and the Dakotas demonstrate the largest concentrations of households receiving public assistance income. In some Upper Midwestern counties, as many as 40 percent of all households received such income in 1989 (defined as Supplemental Security Income, Aid to Families with Dependent Children, and/or General Assistance). Food Stamp recipients are not recorded by the Census.

Map 20 — Age of Housing (Median Year Built): 1990

As one might expect, persistent outmigration and an older population are associated with a relatively old housing stock. Map 20 demonstrates that in the Upper Midwest there are 179 counties in which half of all housing units were constructed in 1956 or earlier. For many of these counties the median year of construction falls in the 1940s and 1930s. Many of the oldest housing pools are found in Iowa, Eastern South Dakota and Southwestern Minnesota.

Map 21 — Median Value of Owner-Occupied Housing: 1990

Map 21 clearly suggests that homes with relatively low current values are located in the most agricultural portions of the region, including the Dakotas, Iowa and Southwestern Minnesota. If these numbers seem improbably low to you, remember that we are dealing with a midpoint here, not with an average. Remember, too, that these values reflect self-reporting by Census respondents.

Produced by Communication and Educational Technology Services, University of Minnesota Extension.

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